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Asian Petroleum Review : Jan-March 2011
15 The consultancy expects oil products demand to fall by around 36,000 bpd in the next two years to 1.148 million bpd, before rising to nearly 1.2 million bpd in 2015. "Once this transition is complete, growth will resume, " Yen said. NEW REFINERIES AFTER 2015? The lack of new refining capacity, as projects were stalled by the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the lack of government incentives, will also curb Indonesia's crude use, analysts said. No grassroots refineries will be built until 2015- 2017, although upgrading has been planned at existing plants to convert excess supplies of naphtha, kerosene and fuel oil, Pertamina offi- cial Heru Sutrisno said at a recent conference in Singapore. Indonesia has nine refineries with a combined capacity of around 1 million bpd, meeting 70 percent of domestic demand, with the rest com- ing from imports. Strong potential energy growth in an economy on track to grow 6.1 percent this year has awakened interest in building refineries from Middle East producers and pri- vate refiners, but no final investment decisions have been made. Indonesia has built no refineries since 1995 because of escalating project costs and low margins due to fuel subsidies. "From a resources or market perspective, it's got a lot of potential, " Vautrain said. "To invest in Indonesia you need to have Pertamina as a partner. Pertamina has its own idea who is the right partner. " The government would have to offer tax breaks and other incentives to attract investors to build refineries said Frost & Sullivan consultant Subbu Bettadapura. (Additional reporting by Chandni Vatvani in JAKARTA) (Editing by Ramthan Hussain) Thomson Reuters Asia Petroleum Review