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Asian Petroleum Review : Jan-March 2011
39 U.S. oil may correct to $83.85 per barrel before re- suming the rally to $96 in the first quarter of the year, based on its wave pattern and a channel technique. A five-wave cycle is approaching an end, with the wave (5) likely to peak around an upper channel line resis- tance at $92. A Fibonacci retracement on the fall from the July 2008 high at $147.27 to Dec 2008 low at $32.40 reveals a pivotal resistance at $89.84, the 50 percent level, which has been tested only in this December. Oil is expected to retrace despite breaking above the $89.84 resistance, as the first attempt to break the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level quite often fails. A Fibonacci retracement on the five-wave cycle indi- cates a possible depth of the correction at $83.85, the 38.2 percent level, which coincides with the lower channel line support, upon touching which, oil will resume its uptrend within the rising channel towards $96. ** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own. No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advis- ers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.** (Reporting by Wang Tao; Editing by Himani Sarkar) Thomson Reuters Asia Petroleum Review TECHNICALS Crude may correct to $83.85 in Q1 By Wang Tao SINGAPORE