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Asian Petroleum Review : Jan-March 2011
41 U.S. heating oil is expected to retrace to $2.3350 a gallon before rallying towards $2.9998 in three months based on its wave pattern and a Fibonacci retracement analysis. The rise from Aug. 25 low at $1.9256 completed a five-wave cycle with the wave "5" likely having peaked at $2.5881, and the following correction will drive the price down to $2.3350, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level. However, the downside will not be limited to $2.3350, instead, it could be extended to $2.2569, the 50 per- cent level. Confirming a possible wave "5" peak at $2.5881 are the multiple bearish divergences on the RSI indicator, strongly suggesting a correction ahead. The bull trend will remain intact after the retrace- ment, and the following rally will push the price to $2.9998, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement on the fall from July 2008 high at $4.1586 to March 2009 low at $1.1252. ** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own. No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advis- ers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses. * * (Reporting by Wang Tao; Editing by Himani Sarkar) Thomson Reuters Asia Petroleum Review TECHNICALS U.S. heating oil to retrace $2.3350 in 3 months By Wang Tao SINGAPORE